AI Watchdog - Building Responsible Safeguards for AI

Catastrophic AI Risk Timeline

Adjust the factors below to see how different interventions affect humanity's resilience against dangerous AI over the next 30 years.

5-Year Cat Risk

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2030 outlook

30-Year Cat Risk

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2055 outlook

Capability 50%

Slow Rapid

Regulatory 50%

Weak Strong

Defense 50%

Minimal Substantial

Transparency 50%

Fragmented Unified

Eccentricity 50%

Low High

Event Timeline

Adjust when major milestones occur to see how they reshape the risk curve.

AGI Achieved (Capability spikes)

2031

Alignment Breakthrough (Eccentricity drops)

2038

Robust Guardrails Established

2029

Anti-AI President Elected

2032

International AI Arms Treaty Signed

2040

AI-Driven Civil Commotion

2034

Global Economic Crash

2031

Cyberwarfare Escalation

2032

Autonomous Drone Warfare

2036

Mean Catastrophic Risk Distribution

A Good Bet

Using stochastic modeling and a Monte Carlo simulator, we can better visualize the catastrophic AI risk distribution and how AI Watchdog improve out odds. The lighter band captures the 5th–95th percentile outer range, while the darker band shows the tighter 25th–75th percentile core trajectory.

5-Year Cat Risk

--%

Projected for year 2030

30-Year Cat Risk

--%

Projected for year 2055

Core Challenges

Understanding the fundamental risks we face

The AI Nuclear Moment

Rapid advancement combined with universal adoption creates a critical inflection point.¹ Like nuclear technology, AI's transformative power brings both promise and peril.²

Exponential capability growth³
Widespread deployment before safety validation⁴
Irreversible consequences⁵

Existential Risk Assessment

Cyber warfare, economic collapse, and superintelligence represent existential threats.⁶ We must assess and mitigate these risks before they materialize.⁷

Cybersecurity vulnerabilities⁸
Economic disruption⁹
Superintelligence alignment¹⁰

Industry Capture

Political influence and regulatory capture threaten independent oversight.¹¹ We must ensure that safety considerations aren't compromised by commercial interests.¹²

Lobbying influence¹³
Regulatory capture¹⁴
Conflicts of interest¹⁵

AI Watchdog: Independent Oversight & Strategy

Our Mission

AI Watchdog is a 501(c)3 non-profit dedicated to preventing AI threats through independent research, policy development, and strategic advocacy. We provide the missing watchdog function that industry and government have failed to establish.

Research & Education

Independent analysis and public education on AI risks and policy solutions.

Public policy research, defense strategy, and education

Tracking & Benchmarking

Develop comprehensive tools and protocols to monitor AI development and safety.

Develop AI detection tools, safety protocols, and defensive capabilities

Countermeasures

Continuous monitoring and assessment of AI development progress and emerging threats.

Monitor AI development progress, safety compliance, and emerging threats

The Watchdog Strategy

Threat Tracker

Comprehensive monitoring and assessment of AI development risks and safety compliance.

Benchmark AI development for risk and safety
Enterprise compliance tracking
Create safety assessment methodologies

Defense Lab

Development of detection tools and defensive countermeasures against dangerous AI systems.

AI content detection
Countermeasures against dangerous AI
AGI Failsafes

Think Tank

Policy research and strategic advocacy to shape effective AI governance frameworks.

Public policy research
AI Defense Strategy
Model legislation & public policy briefings

Research & Publications

Independent analysis and peer-reviewed research on AI risk, safety, and governance

Existential Risk from AI: A Comprehensive Assessment

Bostrom, N., Yudkowsky, E., & Russell, S.

A foundational analysis of existential risks posed by artificial general intelligence, examining alignment problems, control challenges, and potential pathways to catastrophic outcomes.

View Reference →

AI Capability Growth and Safety Implications

Hendrycks, D., Mazeika, M., & Woodside, T.

Empirical analysis of exponential growth in AI capabilities, deployment timelines, and the widening gap between capability advancement and safety validation.

View Reference →

Cybersecurity Risks in the Age of AI

Brundage, M., Avin, S., & Amodei, D.

Assessment of how AI systems create new attack vectors, amplify existing vulnerabilities, and enable novel forms of cyber warfare with catastrophic potential.

View Reference →

Regulatory Capture and AI Governance

Crawford, K., & Joler, V.

Examination of how industry influence shapes AI policy, regulatory frameworks, and oversight mechanisms, threatening independent safety assessment.

View Reference →

Economic Disruption from AI Automation

Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A.

Analysis of labor market displacement, economic inequality, and systemic risks from rapid AI adoption across critical infrastructure sectors.

View Reference →

The Alignment Problem: Technical Challenges

Amodei, D., Olah, C., & Steinhardt, J.

Technical deep-dive into the alignment problem, exploring why advanced AI systems may not share human values and the challenges of ensuring safe behavior.

View Reference →

References

Bostrom, N. (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press.
Yudkowsky, E. (2008). "Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk." In Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Bostrom & Ćirković. Oxford University Press.
Hendrycks, D., Mazeika, M., & Woodside, T. (2023). "An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks." arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.12001.
Brundage, M., et al. (2018). "The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation." arXiv preprint arXiv:1802.07228.
Russell, S. (2019). Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control. Viking.
Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Knopf.
Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Hachette Books.
Brundage, M., Avin, S., & Amodei, D. (2018). "The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation." Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.
Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?" Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.
Amodei, D., Olah, C., & Steinhardt, J. (2016). "Concrete Problems in AI Safety." arXiv preprint arXiv:1606.06565.
Crawford, K., & Joler, V. (2019). "Anatomy of an AI System: The Amazon Echo as an Anatomical Map of Human Labor, Data and Planetary Resources." AI Now Institute.
Pasquale, F. (2015). The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information. Harvard University Press.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, et al. (2023). "Managing AI Risks in an Era of Rapid Progress." Statement on AI Safety and Governance.
Stigler, G. J. (1971). "The Theory of Economic Regulation." The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 2(1), 3-21.
Zuboff, S. (2019). The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. PublicAffairs.

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Together, we can shape policies and practices that prevent AI-induced catastrophes.

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Preventing AI Catastrophe

Catastrophic AI Risk Timeline

Event Timeline

Debug Information

Slider Values

Base Indices (2025)

Current Year Values

Event Timeline

A Good Bet

Core Challenges

The AI Nuclear Moment

Existential Risk Assessment

Industry Capture

AI Watchdog: Independent Oversight & Strategy

Our Mission

Research & Education

Tracking & Benchmarking

Countermeasures

The Watchdog Strategy

Threat Tracker

Defense Lab

Think Tank

Research & Publications

Existential Risk from AI: A Comprehensive Assessment

AI Capability Growth and Safety Implications

Cybersecurity Risks in the Age of AI

Regulatory Capture and AI Governance

Economic Disruption from AI Automation

The Alignment Problem: Technical Challenges

References

Join Us in Building a Safer Future